The End of the Diesel Era
Diesel engines have long been a popular choice for pickups, vans, and large SUVs in many key markets, but their days may be numbered – at least that’s what Toyota Australia thinks. What will take their place? If the company’s forecast proves accurate, fuel cell electric vehicles could become mainstream within the next decade.
Diesel Dependence in Australia
In Australia, Toyota remains heavily dependent on diesel engines. In fact, of the 163,491 vehicles sold locally during the first eight months of the year, 48.4% had diesel engines. Models such as the Hilux, LandCruiser, LandCruiser Prado, HiAce, and the popular Fortuner SUV all contribute to these figures.
Toyota Australia’s Vice President of Sales, Marketing, and Franchise Operations, Sean Hanley, believes diesel engines could be completely phased out in the future. If they eventually die out in Australia, where they have historically been so popular, it doesn’t bode well for them in other regions.
When Diesel Will Lose Ground
Diesel won’t disappear over the next decade, but after that – I think hydrogen will replace diesel
– stated Sean Hanley. He added that there is a diesel culture in Australia, but in the long term, he does not see diesel as the fuel of the future, as a gasoline vehicle can do everything the same – and even more.
The Rise of Hydrogen’s Popularity
Hanley also noted that between 2030 and 2035, he expects a rapid increase in sales of Toyota’s hydrogen models, allowing them to replace diesel models.
Especially by 2035, I truly believe that hydrogen will be our future – and that’s when, I think, you will see a change in diesel technology… we are preparing for that future. Why? Hydrogen is clean, hydrogen has a long range, the hydrogen infrastructure will be significantly better than it is today. It will be more convenient and accessible
– he said.
Diverging Strategies
Although Toyota is still investing significant funds in hydrogen technologies, many other automakers have abandoned their hydrogen plans, betting that the future belongs to battery electric vehicles. Hydrogen cars may make a lot of sense, but the infrastructure remains in its infancy, and creating a refueling network that can compete with traditional gas stations or newer EV charging stations will require much more than the efforts of a single manufacturer.
The transition to hydrogen will require not only technological innovation but also changes in consumer perception and government support. The success of this technology will depend on how quickly current limitations can be overcome, such as the high cost of hydrogen production and the need to develop corresponding infrastructure. If these challenges are successfully addressed, hydrogen could become a key element in the decarbonization of transport, especially in heavy-duty applications where battery technologies have not yet demonstrated sufficient efficiency.