Global Electric Vehicle Sales Forecasts
China is significantly ahead of the US and Europe in the transition to electric vehicles, confirms a new study on the pace of electrification. Although the US and Europe are moving in the same direction, their progress is slower.
In a report published this week, EY, one of the world’s largest professional consulting firms, forecasts passenger car sales up to 2050 in three key regions.
Situation in Europe
Electric vehicle sales in Europe will exceed sales of gasoline and diesel cars by 2028. After that, the transition will accelerate, and by 2032, electric vehicles will account for over half of all new passenger car sales in the region.
Until 2030, hybrids, including PHEVs, will continue to sell better than fully electric models. However, with the tightening of CO2 emission standards and the emergence of more affordable electric vehicles, BEVs will quickly take the lead.
Constantin M. Gall, Head of EY Global Aerospace, Defense & Mobility, noted: “The future of transport will be diverse in terms of powertrain types, driven by regulatory changes, tariffs, and the evolution of consumer behavior. But one thing is clear: electromobility will remain central to the future of transport.”
Situation in the USA
The transition to electric vehicles in the US is happening significantly slower than in Europe. EY forecasts short-term sales growth due to the completion of federal tax incentives, however, long-term prospects have worsened. It was previously expected that BEVs would reach 50% of passenger car sales by 2034, but this indicator has now been pushed back to 2039 due to political uncertainty, import tariffs, and the cancellation of incentives.
Hybrids are expected to fill this gap. Their market share in the US could peak at 34% by 2034 before giving way to electric vehicles.
China’s Leadership
In China, the transition to electric vehicles is happening much faster. This year, combined sales of BEVs and PHEVs will reach 50%, and by 2034 will exceed 90%. Interestingly, only fully electric models will reach 50% of passenger car sales by 2033, a year later than in Europe, highlighting the importance of PHEVs in China over the next decade.
Constantin M. Gall of EY added: “The transition to electric vehicles is progressing, but unevenly. The US faces political uncertainty, high costs, and infrastructure challenges. Europe is moving steadily under strict emission targets. China has stable policy and a developed EV ecosystem. Hybrid technologies play a key role in the transition to full electrification.”
For automakers, the uneven pace of transition means that strategy cannot be one-size-fits-all. Success will depend on creating flexible platforms capable of serving rapidly developing markets like China and Europe, while maintaining interest in North America, where the transition is slower.
The difference in the pace of electrification between regions indicates the importance of adapting to local conditions, including regulatory requirements, infrastructure, and consumer demand. It also highlights that hybrid technologies will remain relevant as an interim solution, especially where full electrification is not yet a priority.