by Against the backdrop of overall rising car ownership costs, American drivers are set to receive unexpected positive news. Forecasts for 2026 indicate that fuel prices will continue to fall, providing a small but tangible financial relief.
A Rare Victory for Drivers
Buying a new car has never been more expensive, and insurance and repairs are costing more and more. However, there is one bright spot in this situation for American car owners. Gasoline is getting cheaper, and experts are confident it will become even more affordable in 2026. Industry analysts forecast that the average annual price will be $2.97 per gallon, which would be the lowest figure since 2020. This is a small but significant victory for those who depend on their car.
Seasonal and Regional Differences
The mentioned average price is a nationwide forecast for the entire year. The actual cost will depend on the season. For example, in June the average price could reach $3.08, while in December it could drop to $2.83. There are also significant regional differences. For instance, in California prices may range from $4.19 to $4.66 per gallon, while in Mississippi drivers will pay only $2.43–$2.66. This is influenced by local taxes, fuel composition, and logistics.
Context: From Record Highs to Decline
This trend runs counter to the situation at the beginning of the decade. In 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, gasoline prices crossed the $5 per gallon mark for the first time in history, and fuel became a symbol of inflation. Since then, prices have gradually declined as supply stabilized, oil became cheaper, and markets calmed down. GasBuddy expects 2026 to be the fourth consecutive year of falling fuel prices. Households are projected to spend about $2,083 on fuel, significantly less than during peak inflation years when expenses reached $2,715.
Fuel for All Engine Types
The price reduction will affect not only regular gasoline. Even drivers of diesel vehicles, who traditionally pay more, will benefit. The average price of diesel fuel is forecast to drop to $3.55 per gallon in 2026, compared to $3.71 in 2025.
Political Events and Energy Markets
The question arises whether recent political events, such as the situation in Venezuela, will affect the forecasts. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, expressed the opinion that in the short term, events of recent days will not cause significant shifts or disruptions.
“In the short term, we do not see significant disruptions or changes as a result of the events of the last few days,” he stated.
In his opinion, demand remains stable, and prices are falling due to increased supply worldwide, largely thanks to OPEC decisions to increase production. However, De Haan cautions that a prolonged price decline could slow down domestic drilling in the US and return greater influence to OPEC if American production begins to shrink.
Forecasted Gasoline Prices by State for 2026
Here is a detailed forecast of average gasoline prices in various US states for 2026 (price range per gallon in US dollars):
- Alabama: $2.55 – $2.79
- Alaska: $3.37 – $3.68
- Arizona: $3.09 – $3.38
- Arkansas: $2.52 – $2.75
- California: $4.19 – $4.66
- Colorado: $2.73 – $2.98
- Connecticut: $2.88 – $3.15
- Delaware: $2.83 – $3.09
- Florida: $2.85 – $3.11
- Georgia: $2.70 – $2.95
- Hawaii: $4.01 – $4.42
- Idaho: $3.05 – $3.33
- Illinois: $3.15 – $3.44
- Indiana: $2.88 – $3.14
- Iowa: $2.69 – $2.93
- Kansas: $2.58 – $2.82
- Kentucky: $2.64 – $2.88
- Louisiana: $2.49 – $2.72
- Maine: $2.86 – $3.12
- Maryland: $2.91 – $3.18
- Massachusetts: $2.82 – $3.08
- Michigan: $2.93 – $3.20
- Minnesota: $2.76 – $3.01
- Mississippi: $2.43 – $2.66
- Missouri: $2.62 – $2.86
- Montana: $2.88 – $3.15
- Nebraska: $2.68 – $2.93
- Nevada: $3.56 – $3.89
- New Hampshire: $2.77 – $3.02
- New Jersey: $2.81 – $3.07
- New Mexico: $2.66 – $2.91
- New York: $2.94 – $3.21
- North Carolina: $2.68 – $2.92
- North Dakota: $2.70 – $2.94
- Ohio: $2.80 – $3.06
- Oklahoma: $2.44 – $2.67
- Oregon: $3.54 – $3.87
- Pennsylvania: $3.08 – $3.37
- Rhode Island: $2.80 – $3.06
- South Carolina: $2.58 – $2.81
- South Dakota: $2.68 – $2.92
- Tennessee: $2.53 – $2.77
- Texas: $2.50 – $2.73
- Utah: $2.98 – $3.25
- Vermont: $2.90 – $3.17
- Virginia: $2.79 – $3.05
- Washington: $3.89 – $4.25
- West Virginia: $2.80 – $3.06
- Wisconsin: $2.71 – $2.96
- Wyoming: $2.76 – $3.02
Such a decrease in fuel prices, especially if it persists, could have broader economic consequences, reducing transportation costs for businesses and contributing to lower production costs for goods. For an average family, saving a few hundred dollars a year at gas stations could mean the ability to cover other rising expenses, such as insurance or utilities. However, it is important to remember that this optimistic forecast remains sensitive to global geopolitical events and decisions by key oil producers, which can quickly change the picture on world energy markets.
