U.S. new car sales are showing signs of cooling in the first quarter of 2026. Analysts forecast that slightly fewer than 3.7 million new vehicles will be sold during this period. Major manufacturers such as General Motors, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai have recorded sales declines. However, Nissan and Honda showed some growth compared to the previous quarter.
Overall Market Picture
According to estimates by experts at Edmunds, approximately 3,693,459 new passenger cars and pickup trucks will be sold in the country by the end of March. Final figures will be released later, but if the forecast holds true, this would represent a 6.3% drop compared to the first quarter of 2025 and an 8.8% decline compared to the previous quarter.
This slowdown is linked not only to rising fuel prices or general affordability issues. Severe weather and prolonged geopolitical uncertainty have also played a role in reducing demand.
At the current pace, Edmunds expects the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for the U.S. market to be about 15.9 million units this year.
Impact on Key Manufacturers
The downturn has affected the biggest players in the automotive industry. General Motors is expected to record 625,793 sales in the first quarter, which is 9.8% less than a year ago and 11% less than the previous quarter. Toyota also anticipates a noticeable decline: sales could fall by 12.9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, to 568,737 units.
Ford appears to be feeling the greatest impact. Its first-quarter sales could drop by 10.6% compared to the same period last year and by a significant 17.8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.
Forecasted Sales by Group
Company | 2026 Q1 | 2025 Q1 | 2024 Q4 | Change vs. 2025 Q1 | Change vs. 2025 Q4
GM | 625,793 | 693,466 | 703,072 | -9.8% | -11.0%
Toyota | 568,737 | 570,717 | 653,243 | -0.3% | -12.9%
Ford | 448,329 | 501,301 | 545,239 | -10.6% | -17.8%
Hyundai/Kia | 417,708 | 420,205 | 462,847 | -0.6% | -9.8%
Honda | 337,604 | 351,577 | 332,578 | -4.0% | 1.5%
Stellantis | 291,348 | 294,270 | 332,716 | -1.0% | -12.4%
Nissan | 242,072 | 267,220 | 214,250 | -9.4% | 13.0%
Industry Total | 3,693,459 | 3,941,029 | 4,048,186 | -6.3% | -8.8%
Exceptions Against the General Trend
Only a few of the country’s largest car sellers are projected to see quarterly growth, and even this growth is conditional. Edmunds forecasts that Honda will finish the first quarter with 337,604 sales, which is 4.0% less than in the first quarter of 2025, but 1.5% more than the 332,578 vehicles sold in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Similarly, Nissan’s U.S. sales could have grown by as much as 13% compared to the fourth quarter, potentially reaching 242,072 units. At first glance, this looks like a healthy figure, but it would still be 9.4% lower compared to the first quarter of 2025.
Trading in a less fuel-efficient car during a fuel price surge can actually put you at a disadvantage, as the value of such vehicles falls, while demand for more economical models drives prices up. In other words, timing rarely works in your favor.
Forecasted Market Share by Group
Company | 2026 Q1 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q4 | Change vs. 2025 Q1 | Change vs. 2025 Q4
GM | 16.9% | 17.6% | 17.4% | -3.7% | -2.4%
Toyota | 15.4% | 14.5% | 16.1% | 6.3% | -4.6%
Ford | 12.1% | 12.7% | 13.5% | -4.6% | -9.9%
Hyundai/Kia | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 6.1% | -1.1%
Honda | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 11.3%
Stellantis | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.6% | -4.0%
Nissan | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | -3.3% | 23.8%
This data suggests that the market is undergoing a period of correction after previous years of strong demand. The sales decline for giants like GM and Ford could be a sign that buyers are increasingly opting for economical options or postponing major purchases due to economic uncertainty. At the same time, the relative stability or even slight growth in market share for Honda and Nissan, despite the overall decline, may indicate the success of their marketing strategies or specific models that better meet current consumer needs. The future of the market will largely depend on how quickly fuel and component prices stabilize, as well as on the overall economic dynamics.