Tesla Sales Forecast for 2025 and Long-Term Prospects
According to preliminary estimates, Tesla’s car sales in 2025 could decline by approximately 8 percent compared to last year. This marks the second consecutive year of decline for the company, which was long the leader in the electric vehicle market. This situation has unfolded against a backdrop of increasing industry competition, the gradual phase-out of the federal EV tax credit, and ongoing scrutiny of its CEO.
However, despite a challenging period in 2024 and 2025, analysts are confident that Tesla’s long-term growth trajectory remains intact. They forecast that annual vehicle deliveries will grow by 84 percent by 2029, surpassing the 3 million unit mark.
Ahead of the official announcement of fourth-quarter sales results, Tesla published average estimates from a number of prominent analysts on its investor website. According to this data, the company could sell an average of 422,850 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025. This represents a sharp drop of 15 percent compared to the third quarter, when EV buyers rushed to take advantage of the state tax credit before its expiration.
Is Tesla Managing Expectations?
If fourth-quarter deliveries indeed reach around 423 thousand units, Tesla’s total result for 2025 would amount to 1,640,752 vehicles. However, other sources, including a compilation of analyst forecasts from Bloomberg, show a more optimistic average estimate for the fourth quarter — 440,907 vehicles.
This has led to speculation that Tesla may have intentionally highlighted more conservative forecasts to manage market expectations. If the final figure turns out to be higher than the average published by the company, the result could be presented as a relative success.
Forecasts also point to an interesting dynamic within the model lineup. Combined sales of the popular Model 3 and Model Y are expected to fall from 481,166 units in the third quarter to 388,002 in the fourth. Meanwhile, sales of the least popular models — Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X — could more than double, rising from 15,933 to 34,848 units over the same period.
Analysts’ Long-Term Forecasts
In addition to quarterly estimates, the data collected by Tesla from companies such as Barclays, Wells Fargo, UBS, and Jefferies also includes long-term sales forecasts for 2026-2029. On average, analysts expect Tesla to sell 1,750,243 vehicles in 2026, followed by significant growth in subsequent years.
According to estimates, deliveries could reach 2,010,459 vehicles by 2027, 2,350,451 by 2028, and exceed 3 million (3,019,902) by 2029.
New Priorities: From EVs to Robots
Elon Musk once set an extremely ambitious goal: to sell 20 million cars annually by 2030, which would put Tesla on par with giants like Toyota and Volkswagen Group. However, like many of his other optimistic forecasts, including repeated promises of annual Cybertruck sales of 200,000 units, the company has stepped back from this target.
Today, the company is increasingly focused on accelerating the development and future mass production of its humanoid robot. According to Musk, this product could eventually become the best-selling item in history.
Current sales forecasts indicate a transitional period for the company, where short-term difficulties are combined with investor confidence in its long-term potential. The shift in communication focus — from giant auto sales to futuristic technologies like robots — may be an attempt to lay the groundwork for a new growth phase, less dependent on the fluctuations of the EV market. The success of this strategy will depend on Tesla’s ability not only to stabilize its auto business but also to prove the viability and commercial appeal of its new developments, which is a significant technological and manufacturing challenge.