Toronto Speed Report: Numbers You Need to Understand
Toronto released a new speeding report, and at first glance, it sounds like a real transportation disaster. Activists warn of a 400-percent surge in speeding violations. Experts say the results were “completely predictable.” Politicians are demanding the return of automated enforcement.
However, behind all those alarming percentages hides a much smaller number that might tell us more about what actually happened. That number is 4.8.
This week, Toronto published its first major speed analysis after Ontario’s decision to cancel municipal automated speed enforcement programs in November 2025. The report showed that speeds increased on 101 out of 104 studied sections. That’s a fairly convincing conclusion on its own and strong evidence that cameras influenced driver behavior.
Yet the statistic grabbing the most attention is the reported 380-480 percent increase in certain speeding categories, depending on which roads are studied. On paper, it sounds catastrophic. Reality is more nuanced.
The Numbers Behind the Headlines
The largest increase in the city involved drivers exceeding the speed limit by 16 km/h (10 mph) or more on roads with a limit of 50 km/h (31.1 mph) or higher. While cameras were active, this group accounted for only 0.5 percent of vehicles. After the cameras were removed, that figure rose to 2.9 percent.
In other words, two statements can be true simultaneously. Speeding increased by roughly 480 percent and by only 2.4 percentage points. The first sounds like chaos, the second like a barely noticeable shift. Neither is technically incorrect. But they create radically different impressions.
That’s why the most important number in the report is not 480 percent. It’s the average increase in operating speed across all studied sections: 4.8 km/h (3 mph). Yes, three miles per hour—or about the top speed of the world’s fastest three-toed sloth. I wish I were joking.
To be clear, while 3 mph is not much, it’s not nothing. Road safety researchers have repeatedly shown that even small speed increases can affect braking distance and crash severity. The report’s findings deserve attention. But they don’t necessarily justify all the rhetoric that followed.
What the Data on Fatalities Shows
Several experts and activists have pointed to the report as evidence that removing cameras made Toronto’s roads more dangerous. However, the city’s own fatality data does not support that conclusion—at least not yet.
Toronto recorded 25 fatal collisions between December 2025 and May 2026 after camera removal. That’s higher than some previous years. But it’s also exactly the same number recorded during the same six-month period in 2021-2022, when automated enforcement was fully operational.
The report itself notes that fatality counts fluctuate significantly year to year, and a six-month period is insufficient to establish meaningful trends. There’s another question almost no one wants to ask. If cameras were so effective because they forced drivers to obey speed limits, what does that say about the roads themselves?
Infrastructure Is King for Speed Reduction
University of Toronto professor Matti Siemiatycki told CTV News that speed bumps are not practical on major roads like Finch, Steeles, or Bathurst. That’s a fair point. Few would argue for installing speed bumps on all major arteries.
But if physical traffic calming is deemed impractical and cameras are necessary, we face an uncomfortable possibility. Perhaps many of these roads naturally encourage drivers to go faster than allowed. We’ve seen similar situations in many places where roads are designed like racetracks, and then people wonder why speeding occurs.
Ultimately, this shifts the conversation. The debate is no longer just about reckless drivers but about road design, control, and whether cities use cameras to manage speeds on roads designed for entirely different driver behavior. Toronto’s report successfully demonstrates that drivers sped up by 3 mph after the cameras disappeared. That’s hard to dispute.
However, it does not prove that the city suddenly became much more dangerous. Nor does it answer the more important question. If enforcement is the only thing keeping speeds down on some roads, are cameras correcting driver behavior or compensating for infrastructure that encourages it in the first place?
That’s a conversation worth having. And it’s far more interesting than a sensational headline about 480 percent.
Photo: City of Toronto
It’s worth noting that the debate around speed cameras often boils down to emotional arguments, while real data—like the average speed increase of 4.8 km/h—suggests a more moderate impact. Toronto’s report underscores that the effectiveness of such measures cannot be judged solely by percentage spikes, especially when baseline figures are very small. The key issue remains the need for a comprehensive approach that includes not just penalties but also road redesign, so that roads naturally encourage safe speeds rather than relying exclusively on automated enforcement.