Elon Musk’s Grand Ambitions
Love him or hate him, Elon Musk has repeatedly proven capable of turning the incredible into reality. From electric vehicles dominating global markets to rockets that return to Earth with pinpoint accuracy, his achievements are truly impressive. However, even for him, the new performance award from Tesla’s board of directors, presented in 2025, is a challenge of an incredible scale.
The plan stipulates that Musk can receive over 423 million shares and a total compensation of around $1 trillion. Of course, this will only happen if Tesla achieves incredible goals. The award is divided into 12 tranches, each of which unlocks as certain market capitalization targets are met.
According to SEC documents, the first tranche activates at a capitalization of $2 trillion, the next nine — with an increase of $500 billion each, and the final two — at $1 trillion each, which should ultimately lead to a total company valuation of $8.5 trillion by 2035. Currently, Tesla’s value is just over $1 trillion.
Terms and Challenges
However, market capitalization is only part of the conditions. Musk must also ensure an annual adjusted EBITDA of at least $400 billion and achieve operational goals that take Tesla to a whole new level. Among them — launching 1 million fully autonomous robotaxis into commercial operation and producing 1 million Optimus AI-based robots.
Market cap is only a small piece of the story. Musk must also deliver at least $400 billion in sustained annual adjusted EBITDA, which is finance-speak for the company’s earnings from its core business before accounting for things like taxes, interest, or non-cash costs such as depreciation.
To date, robotaxis still require a driver present for safety, so these goals are not just theoretical — they require breakthroughs in autonomy, scaling, and execution. This deal forces a look at Musk’s history: he is undoubtedly a visionary, but often promises more than he can deliver and regularly delays the implementation of technological initiatives.
The Bet on Autonomy
Nevertheless, if he actually achieves all the conditions of this compensation package, it will be hard to deny that he is a key innovator of our time. At the same time, the board of directors structured this deal so that Musk cannot simply achieve the goals and immediately receive the reward.
Tesla said it “believes that Mr Musk’s vision and leadership are critical to nailing that execution”.
He must remain at Tesla for the next 7.5–10 years, and all goals must be achieved by 2035. Now, all of Musk’s promises regarding autonomy become even more important — his salary and, perhaps, his entire legacy depend on whether Tesla can become a leader in this industry as quickly as possible.
These ambitions require not only a technological breakthrough but also stable financial growth, making Tesla’s future path even more significant for the entire automotive and technology sectors. The success or failure of these efforts could have far-reaching consequences for the future of transportation and artificial intelligence.