by Russia’s car market will slide into oblivion this year. Even local analysts have no illusions about this and predict a 70% drop in sales.
This figure was announced by the chairman of the Automobile Manufacturers Committee of the Association of European Businesses, Alexey Kalitsev. However, he stated that it is difficult to predict the exact numbers of sales decline now – it is still unclear how strongly the sanctions against Russia will hit the automotive industry.
Notably, even in the most optimistic forecast, car sales in Russia will fall by 50%. This is possible if halted car plants suddenly resume work in the near future (and start producing cars without ABS and catalysts), although, of course, such a scenario is far from reality.
“I think that clarity with deliveries will be in the next quarter. I do not expect a significant improvement in the situation during the second quarter. The second quarter will be a period of overcoming all the issues we have. And if we have a positive scenario, we will start producing, the market this year could be 0.8-0.85 million cars. In fact, it’s the same 50% drop. If this production resumption is later than the third quarter, the market will be even smaller,” said Alexey Kalitsev.
Sales of used cars in Russia will also decrease, but only by 10-30%. The reason is that due to the lack of money and the market deficit, many who wish to buy a new car are shifting to second-hand.
